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Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments

Abstract:

Every month, a fraction of UK property leases are extended for another 90 years or more. We build a new dataset of thousands of these natural experiments from 2000 onwards to estimate the expected long term housing yield, y∗. Starting from a level of 5.3%, y∗ starts to fall during the Great Recession, reaching a low of 2.8% in 2023. Real time data shows y∗ has not risen since 2021, despite rising shorter term yields. Cross-sectional estimates show that y∗ is higher in areas with more housing risk, and falls by more in areas with more inelastic housing supply.

About Prof. Atif Mian:

Prof. Mian is the John H. Laporte, Jr. Class of 1967 Professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton 8xav��������. He began his academic journey in 2001 after completing his bachelor’s degree in Mathematics with Computer Science and earning a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. Prior to joining Princeton in 2012, he taught at the 8xav�������� of California, Berkeley, and the 8xav�������� of Chicago Booth School of Business.

His research centers on finance and macroeconomics, with a broader focus on understanding how individuals connect to create what we refer to as the economy. He views economics as a means to help society connect in ways that result in a whole greater than the sum of its parts.

In 2007, he co-founded the , a non-profit research institute dedicated to economic research, teaching, and innovation. Additionally, he serves as the director of the at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.

For those interested in his work, his earlier book, “” (co-authored with Amir Sufi), provides valuable insights. The academic foundation behind the book was summarized at the . He also discussed the fundamental ideas of the book in an , and the policy implications were outlined in a .

Currently, his research delves into the profound implications of rising inequality for the macroeconomy, including aspects such as growth, financial markets, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. He outlines some of this agenda in an interview, and his working papers and published work .

Language: English

This is a free seminar. Registration is mandatory.

Please note that cold lunch will be provided for registered participants (12h-12h30).

This is a joint event held with the European Stability Mechanism and the Department of Finance of the 8xav�������� of Luxembourg.