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Abstract:

Interventions in corporate credit markets were a major innovation in the policy response to the 2020 recession. This paper develops and estimates a model to quantify their impact on borrowing and investment. Even during downturns, credit interventions can be a bad policy idea, because they exacerbate debt overhang and depress investment in the long run. However, if the downturn is accompanied by financial market disruptions, they initially help forestall inefficient liquidations. These short-term benefits quantitatively dominate the long-run overhang costs. Additionally, constraining share-holder distributions, and targeting high-leverage firms substantially increases the “bang for the buck” of credit interventions.

This event is Supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (2022/17573036)